Sunday, June 14, 2009

Weekend wrap up, June 14th

This is going to be a quick wrap up. As we all know, we have gripped on tightly to the 4300-4500 range: actually, the range has gotten even narrower, as the lowest point I have for the week on a 24 hour basis is 4366.


We now have a couple of ascending trendlines too look at (in brown and pinkish purple), both of which could be part of a larger wedge (in pinkish purple, I favoured the major ascending trendline).


As we keep on ranging, the daily RSI is stalling, and while the indicator is moving lower, we can't call it divergence as we have not recorded a new high in prices. Momentum on the daily is now looking to the upside: but just like last week, a 1% move up or down can currently change this.


Looking at the Accumulation Swing Index, as we did last week, please notice how we broke above previous highs for the year and how we have kept on climbing.


My bias is to look for longs, until the picture changes. Next week is option expiry too, so let's keep an open mind. However, as we continue ranging the feeling I have is that, while we will most certainly get a pullback, the lows touched in March will not be broken unless unforeseen events materialize. Please note how the Alligator's mouth is shut tight (below), and has been so for a prolonged period: the next major move, up or down, will likely be quite powerful and fast.

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