Play for Tuesday, July 7th

Intraday momentum is mixed, but with both daily and weekly momentum pointing south the only entry to seek at the moment is still a short entry.

There are several areas to look at:

• If a stronger bounce occurs, look for strength in the 4190s-4200s. This area might present an opportunity for a long scalp as well.
• Weakness could occur at several points: the 4220s-4230s (retrace from Friday's high), the 4240s-4260s (retrace from Thursday's highs), and all the way up to the 4280s (retrace from Wednesday's highs).
  

We saw the index reach as high as 4231 before US close yesterday, so one inflection point has already occured.

Let's see what the open brings...

No charts at the moment, maybe later.

Play for Monday, July 6th

On Friday, we completed a 50% to 61.8% retrace from Thursday's highs to the lows, and at the moment we are quoted in the 4210s.

Both intraday and daily momentum are looking south, and weekly momentum has began to look south also.

Ideally, I would look for weakness on a bounce to enter a short. A first retrace area is in the 4240s. That said, a retrace on the US markets could drive us to slightly higher levels.

I am going to be cautious today and wait for the US open and markets to re-adjust following the long weekend.

(No) Play for Friday, July 3rd

In light of the total and partial closure across US markets today, I will not be seeking an entry today, and would encorage to do the same in light of expected low volumes.

In any case, if we close this week around the 4200 line or preferably below we will be turning momentum south on the weekly charts. However, beware that days, like yesterday, prior to three day weekends in the US are often countertrend.

Taking on a small long at 4276

10% fill only, tight stop at 4260.

Update: moving stop at 4280.

Update 2: the payrolls stopped me out for a "serious" profit of 4 points...all flat now.

Play for Thursday, July 2nd

Yesterday's rally was again quite abrupt and with no retrace down. However, daily momentum indicators are currently looking back north.

We could sell on weakness in the 4330s to ride a retrace down, or else look for strength between the 4280s and 4300s. Do look for a clear buy signal around these levels, as we have drawn a small parallel channel that could take us slightly lower as well, see below, and intraday momentum is mixed at the moment.

Short at 4309

For a 20% fill with OCO order to manage risk: limit order to cover at 4282, stop at 4330

Update: keeping the stop at 4330, but am managing covering manually if necessary, as I am at the desk for a few hours.

Update 2: I have just covered half of my trade at breakeven, am left with a 10% fill. Have to head out, putting a OCO back with the same details as above

Update 3: Just got back....and obviously I have been stopped out, but at least I was left only with a tiny exposure so no biggie.

Play for Wednesday, July 1st

Yesterday was quite a choppy, ranging day, especially in the morning. I got out of my long, flipped to a short and then got stopped out of it. The market then dropped to the 4230s.

We are drawing both a slightly ascending parallel channel and a wedge, as the FTSE's range is clearly tightening. We have broken out of the cup and handle on Monday, and daily momentum, on some indicators, is beginning to turn back pointing north: this is not confirmed though.

I am probably going to stay on the sidelines for today as I'll be running herrands and be at the desk sporadically. In any case, we are quoted in the 4250s: weakness could come here at open, and other areas to look for weakness are the 4270-4280s or else 4300 remains the area of resistance for now. Otherwise, look for strength in the 4240s. At this point, it would be advisable to be humble in profit taking, until a clear breakout occurs.