Play for Friday, July 17th (the last play of the day!)

Good morning everyone!

I am a tad late this morning but I was off the desk from yesterday evening. This is the last play of the day entry: this blog is shutting down. I will be leaving for graduate school at the end of August and from next week onwards I am simply taking time off to get some rest and get things ready for my departure. No more trading for me.

Now, since I am short at 4352, I am going to pull and xTrends kind of chart (aka "Pulling an Atilla"): that is, I am going to post the only chart that support my position :-) and disregard everything else.

See the divergence on the hourly below, as we made higher highs on prices the RSI, ROC and Linear Regression Slope all posted negative divergences. I am sitting here hoping this works...

If it doesn't work, well I'll take the loss and be done with it and realise I was wrong...some pseudo traders that run a popular blog could learn from this.

Short at 4352

This trade has a very wide stop, so be aware of the risk.

I am short at 4352 for a 30% fill, stop at 4430. I am short because we hit this retrace area and my stop is at the 78.6% line.

Be aware though....

That yesterday's run took us in the 50% to 61.8% retrace from the May highs to Monday's lows, an ambush short area. This has occured on more than one index.

Play for Thursday, July 16th

See retrace areas on the chart below, there are two areas into which to look for strength and go long:

• 4260s to 4280s: this is the preferred area, we also have the 7 day weighted moving average in the 4270s.
• A larger retrace could takes to the 4200s - 4230s, an area that has provided resistance recently.
  

In either case, a small countertrend on the short side could be taken, but I would wait for a confirmation on intraday charts: yesterday's strength was impressive and retraces did not occur even on the smallest timeframes.

Short at 4346

For a 10% fill only. Stop at 4375.

I am taking this just out of curiosity and for entertainment purposes. Last night, after ES re-opened higher, the FTSE was quoted exactly at 4346, then it stalled, and after four minutes went back into the 4260 (on my broker at least). Probably a system error...but still I am just too curious not to try on on a small position :-P

Update: well got stopped out of this entertainment trade. Damn....no magic number from yesterday's freak episode. Now flat and out and watching, recommend the same.

Staying flat

We are barely making 50% retraces on the 1 minute chart to jump on the long bandwagon for scalps.

I am sure plenty of permabears will seek shorts at these levels: let's if the 4300 line holds at all, remember the triple top calls I was making back in May? In theory, the 4300 line should now act as resistance, but we have seen this penetrated to the upside already.

Best chances are to look for weakness close to 4300 for a quick short and/or be on the lookout for strength IF (big if) we retrace down.

I am staying flat for now.

Play for Wednesday, July 15th

Given last night's jiggles, I will remain cautious today.

Daily momentum is looking north, while weekly momentum is looking south. We could range, we could trend, we could do a number of things: however, given daily momentum the bias is to look for a long entry.

However, given that we did not really break the 4290s (my broker went mad for 4 minutes last night), we could still seek weakness and retrace down to the 4180s to 4160s (a good spot to find strength). Otherwise, let's see if something can be scalped: again, I'd remain cautious on size until a proper trend or range has been re-established.

Ok, this is not cool....

My broker stopped me out...apparently: at 9:30 UK Time ES re-opened after the pause and was quoted at 908. My brokers concurrently quoted the FTSE at 4346 on the bid...thank you!

Now the price is not moving: no wonder. My stop order is blinking and not executed for now.

Re-entered at 4239

10% fill only, stop at 4255.

Partial cover

I have covered my 4230 entry at 4207 for 23 points.

I am now left with a 20% fill from 4251 and have moved my stop to 4246.

Update: my leftover short got stopped out at 4246 for a modest 5 point profit. All flat now.

Added at 4251

For a further 20% fill.

Short at 4230

30% fill, stop at 4290.

Covered short at 4201

From 4225 for 24 points.

Now flat.

Let's give the short side a chance....

Short at 4225 for a scalp, 10% fill only, stop at 4240

Play for Tuesday, July 14th

Let's keep it simple.

We are heading towards the upper trendline of the current downward channel and are within a 50%-61.8% retrace from the 4330s high reached on July 1st to yesterday's lows.

For a short look for weakness up to the 4250s, with a stop above 4290.

Otherwise, shall one wish to marry the long side, look for strength in the 4150s-4160s. The 7-day average however is in the 4180s and might provide support as well.

Daily momentum is positive, weekly momentum is negative. Happy Bastille Day!

Closed long at 4130

From 4099 for 31 points.

Long at 4099

For a scalp, 10% fill only, let's give it a chance! Stop at 4075.

Play for Monday, July 13th

I am off the desk most of the morning (again), so I'll update later with charts.

We sold off from the 4150s last night and we currently quote in the 4110s. Intraday momentum, daily momentum and weekly momentum are all negative.

We might get a bounce: if we do it could be playable for a long. Areas to look for weakness are the 4140s to 4170s, the highs 4190s to 4200s and then the 4220s-4240s.

If we don't bounce, I'd sit tight and wait for a retrace to play.

Closed long at 4142

From 4125, as we are approaching the close.

I am done for the week, have a good weekend!

Moving stop to breakeven

On the small long I have from 4125.

Covered all shorts and flipped to long at 4125

I have covered the short I had from 4214 and concurrently went long at 4125.

10% fill ONLY, stop at 4095: it's a countertrend trade, but I want to give it a try. I am done for the week after this trade however it goes.

Covered half position at 4134

I covered my 4174 entry at 4134. We got the sell off even before open...

Left with the original 20% at 4214, and moved the stop at 4182.

Play for Friday, July 10th

Yesterday we respected the black trendline in the chart below, and obviously stayed well within the current channel (in pink).

However, intraday momentum is currently mixed: looking south on shorter time frames and up on longer ones. Daily and weekly momentum is looking day, and the 7 day weighted moving average (which often acts are resistance/support) is at 4169.

There is a strong chance we might get a sell off at the open, but I'd keep a an open mind: as mentioned yesterday, a more significant retrace up could get us up to the 4230s-4250s.

I am maintaining my current trade, which is set up to stop at breakeven.

Moving my stop

To 4195, putting on a risk free trade. Momentum is rising on 4 hour charts, better be safe.

Added short at 4174

For a further 20% fill, stop for whole position still at 4230.

Play for Thursday, July 9th

As predicted, yesterday we broke below the 4170s and found resistance again in the 4130s (or slightly below).

We are currently quoted in the 4150s on the bid: a potential area to look for weakness is the 4150s to 4170s.

Alternatively, if we do rally for a larger retrace up, the final area of resistance would be the 4230s to 4250s, with the 4200 line before this.

I am still short and might adjust my stop either up or down.

Play for Wednesday, July 8th

Apologies for the late post.

I am off the desk most of today, and will leave my current position as it stands. I'll be back to check on it in a few hours.

The 4170s marked a support/resistance, we broke below and another support/resistance to watch out for is now the 4130s.

Time to look for shorts only: intraday momentum is negative, daily momentum is negative, weekly momentum is negative.

Flipped at 4214

Took profit on the small long I had left from 4192 and concurrently went short at 4214 for a 20% fill, stop at 4230.

Covered half at 4232

From 4192 for 40 points. Now left with a 10% fill at 4192 and moving stop to 4198: worst case scenario I get stopped out with a 6 point profit.

Covered 1/3 at 4212

From 4192 for 20 points. Still hold on a 20% fill from that level and moving stop to 4187.

Long at 4192

30% fill, stop at 4180. Let's give a long scalp a chance.

Chart update

As promised, this is the only channel I see at the moment, coupled with major resistance/support levels.

Play for Tuesday, July 7th

Intraday momentum is mixed, but with both daily and weekly momentum pointing south the only entry to seek at the moment is still a short entry.

There are several areas to look at:

• If a stronger bounce occurs, look for strength in the 4190s-4200s. This area might present an opportunity for a long scalp as well.
• Weakness could occur at several points: the 4220s-4230s (retrace from Friday's high), the 4240s-4260s (retrace from Thursday's highs), and all the way up to the 4280s (retrace from Wednesday's highs).
  

We saw the index reach as high as 4231 before US close yesterday, so one inflection point has already occured.

Let's see what the open brings...

No charts at the moment, maybe later.

Play for Monday, July 6th

On Friday, we completed a 50% to 61.8% retrace from Thursday's highs to the lows, and at the moment we are quoted in the 4210s.

Both intraday and daily momentum are looking south, and weekly momentum has began to look south also.

Ideally, I would look for weakness on a bounce to enter a short. A first retrace area is in the 4240s. That said, a retrace on the US markets could drive us to slightly higher levels.

I am going to be cautious today and wait for the US open and markets to re-adjust following the long weekend.

(No) Play for Friday, July 3rd

In light of the total and partial closure across US markets today, I will not be seeking an entry today, and would encorage to do the same in light of expected low volumes.

In any case, if we close this week around the 4200 line or preferably below we will be turning momentum south on the weekly charts. However, beware that days, like yesterday, prior to three day weekends in the US are often countertrend.

Taking on a small long at 4276

10% fill only, tight stop at 4260.

Update: moving stop at 4280.

Update 2: the payrolls stopped me out for a "serious" profit of 4 points...all flat now.

Play for Thursday, July 2nd

Yesterday's rally was again quite abrupt and with no retrace down. However, daily momentum indicators are currently looking back north.

We could sell on weakness in the 4330s to ride a retrace down, or else look for strength between the 4280s and 4300s. Do look for a clear buy signal around these levels, as we have drawn a small parallel channel that could take us slightly lower as well, see below, and intraday momentum is mixed at the moment.

Short at 4309

For a 20% fill with OCO order to manage risk: limit order to cover at 4282, stop at 4330

Update: keeping the stop at 4330, but am managing covering manually if necessary, as I am at the desk for a few hours.

Update 2: I have just covered half of my trade at breakeven, am left with a 10% fill. Have to head out, putting a OCO back with the same details as above

Update 3: Just got back....and obviously I have been stopped out, but at least I was left only with a tiny exposure so no biggie.

Play for Wednesday, July 1st

Yesterday was quite a choppy, ranging day, especially in the morning. I got out of my long, flipped to a short and then got stopped out of it. The market then dropped to the 4230s.

We are drawing both a slightly ascending parallel channel and a wedge, as the FTSE's range is clearly tightening. We have broken out of the cup and handle on Monday, and daily momentum, on some indicators, is beginning to turn back pointing north: this is not confirmed though.

I am probably going to stay on the sidelines for today as I'll be running herrands and be at the desk sporadically. In any case, we are quoted in the 4250s: weakness could come here at open, and other areas to look for weakness are the 4270-4280s or else 4300 remains the area of resistance for now. Otherwise, look for strength in the 4240s. At this point, it would be advisable to be humble in profit taking, until a clear breakout occurs.