Covered long @4276

I covered my tiny long scalp at 4276 for 27 points.

I wasn't at the desk, but the high 4230s-low 4240s were the real spot sweet to go long. That area was an ambush long area from the pre-open level and resistance of 4215 to the high we got this morning in the 4260s.


I am now flat again. Given that I have lost the chance for a multi-day trade - on the long side at least - and in light of the long weekend in Europe this is probably my last trade for the week.

Long @4249

For a scalp, 10 point stop, only 10% fill.

Bollinger bonanza

Just a quick note on this morning: look at this intraday 15 minute chart and how prices stack up against the Bollinger band. This should be useful to the perma-bears with hitchy fingers...

We have several bars one after the other outside or on the limit with the upper Bollinger band. Whether this occurs on the upside or on the downside, it's usually a sign that it is wise NOT to take position in the opposite direction. Or at least to wait to do so...


This event can occur on any time frame, although on daily and weekly charts it is rare that we have several "outside" periods, with the band usually acting as a boundary.

Back on track

I have been particularly off my trading/charting/blogging since I came back, but now I can hopefully start to get back on track. Technical issue on charts has seemingly been resolved too.

So, last night I put on this small short at 4194. My target were the 4150s to low 4170s: this was an ambush long area from the support/resistance we had hit in the 4120s. My plan for today would have been to close all my shorts in that ambush long and look for strength to reverse my position: I guess I should have done it all on a limit order...my short trade was basically break-even.


Last Thursday, I warned that while we could have a potential head and shoulders formation in the works, I had also spotted a secondary rising trendline and momentum was rising and warned for caution. We have now fully retraced above the 61.8% from the January 6th high to the March lows. The next major resistance is in the 4330s, which matches with the upper boundary of the ascending channel we are in, and was hit twice for a double top earlier this year.


I'll be looking for a long entry today, but beware that we have US data coming out and that tomorrow most (if not all) European markets are closed and that Monday is a UK bank holiday.

Stop loss hit

My stop loss got hit on what I had left from last night's short.

Limit hit on half position

Half of my short got covered at 4165 on a limit order late last night. I am keeping the remaining 10% with its stop loss at 4220.

The 4150s to 4170 area were an ambush long from area from the 4120 resistance/support to the after hours high we had last night. I would have expected to see us in that range this morning.

I am having some technical problems with regards to uploading charts at the moment, but hope to post some as soon as possible.

Short @ 4194

I am short at 4194, 20% fill, stop at 4220.

Starting tomorrow I'll try to get back to my more thorough analysis...I have to get back in gear after my short vacation and some evening commitments I have had over the past few days.

Let's see how this trade plays out.

Short again at 4115.

Just a 10% fill, stop at 4130, for either a scalp or a daytrade.

We have been ranging between the 4120s and 4080s-4090s since yesterday afternoon, so I figured it was worth a shot.

The 4110s are also an ambush area from the last high we had on monday evening.


I am being cautious, taking light risk, as momentum is once again mixed, and am happy to reverse and go long anytime.

Update: covered short at 4103. I am all flat.

Covered shorts @ 4097

From 4140 and 4114.

I have added @ 4114

For another 10%. My stop is at 4132.

Update: I have moved my stop to 4140.

Quick update

Just a quick update, as I got back from my travels yesterday and have been looking at the action that has developed over the past few days.

Last night I saw some divergence forming on the longer intraday time frames, and took a speculative short at 4140 for a 10% fill. Nothing major, but given the negative divergence it was worth a shot. What didn't convince me completely was the intermediate rally we got between the two tops.


We found resistance in the 4160s area, and broke above on a few occurences. However, the 4160s also provided resistance on a previous occasion. Between the end of January and mid-February, the 4160s area had provided support a few times. I am watching closely if we break below the 4050s to 4060s, or if we remain range bound. The 4050s to 4060s area had also provided support back in January and early February.


Momentum is negative on intraday charts as I am writing this, but let's see what the US markets bring to us this afternoon.

Bric-a-brac: limit order hit and outlook for Thursday, April 23rd

My short from last night hits its limit order buy as the US closed at 3975 from 4030 and 4031, where it covered completely. I am now flat, and posting rapidly for an update.

This morning I would point your attention again to the head and shoulders formation that's possibly in the works: we failed around the middle of the right shoulder yesterday after hours.

However, also look at that second ascending trendline which I have marked with a brown line. I have momentum rising on the 2 and 4 hour chart, but negative on other intraday charts and on the daily: so the outlook is once again mixed both in terms of formations and indicators.


Were I trading today, I'd be cautious on either side. I need to run and catch my plane: no updates until Tuesday, have a great week-end!

Broken promises

While I said I'd stay out of the market, and was indeed out and busy packing my bags for my trip, a fellow trader warned me of the after hours levels we had reached.

I failed to resist temptation and re-opened my screens: I am now short at 4030 and 4031, 20% filled. My stop is at 4070.

Covered long at 4003

I am out of all my longs for little profit at 4003. There is too much choppiness around and I'd rather take home what I got.

• We have been sitting on the ascending trendline all morning long, with daily momentum negative and just below the 7 day weighted moving average.
• Intraday charts are still mixed.
• We have a potential H/S formation that could build up.
  

We are on the verge of a break-out to either side: confirming the uptrend channel, or else breaking below. I'll let the market do the break-out with its own money rather than mine.




I am done for the day. No morning update today given the choppiness, and I'll try to post an evening wrapper this evening.

Update: Where I on the lookout for a trade, I'd still be looking for weakness and divergence on indicators between the 4010s and 4030s.

Entering long position

After nibbling two long scalps (small nibbles), which I took out almost at breakeven, I re-entered a long as momentum built on top of the 3965 line.

I am now long at 3988, 3992 and 3999, with a stop at 3970. I view this as a day trade for now.

As mentioned in the play for today, I would be looking for strength between the 3950s and 3970s. The strength did appear, but there was abudant choppiness this morning, and I was getting mixed signals on the intraday charts until well after the 9:30 (UK time) data.

Play for Wednesday, April 22nd

Yesterday's upward retrace has shed light on the following:

• We have gone back, although slightly, into the ascending channel we had left ealier. However, as of now (7 AM UK Time), we are standing right on the lower boundary, with the FTSE quote in the 3990s on the bid.
  
• Momentum on daily indicators is still slightly negative for now.
• Intraday indicators are mixed.

I would like to shed light on this potential formation that's taking shape: an almost slanted head and shoulders that would need to fail today or tomorrow at or below the right shoulder. Given the still negative daily momentum this is something to be aware of.


On the 15 minute chart that follows, please note how we closed last night at a major retrace area from Friday's high to yesterday's low, in the 4010s to 4030s, and which I noted in yesterday's evening wrapper.



I'll be looking for any sustained weakness at the open: if the short trend continues I will try to get in. The 4010s to 4030s are an area of interest as mentioned. However, I'll be very open minded and will be on the look out for any strong support area forming: there are several support lines on the way down, and the main long ambush area is in the 3950s to 3970s.

Today is my last day of trading for this week, and I won't be looking at the markets from tomorrow until Monday evening. I'll be again trading cautiously for this reason, unless a great opportunity comes about.

The evening wrapper, Tuesday, April 21st

As laid out in the plan for today, I was looking for weakness to go short: while I mentioned the 4030s to 4050s area would be preferable, I also said I'd get in lower if necessary.

Indeed, after a long scalp after the open, I shorted the FTSE at the 4006 level. We hit the 4020 resistance and headed down, and negative momentum had begun building on my intraday charts.

I jumped in at the 4006 level, which was a retrace area from this morning's 4020 high to the 3990s we had just touched minutes earlier.

We then broke through the 4000 level, finding weak resistances all the way down to the 3890s. Meanwhile, I took out half of my short at the 3984 level.

There were in total three major ambush short areas: in the 4000 to 4010s (where I jumped in this morning), at 4000 area, and in early afternoon in the 3940s. The upside move provided only one good retrace zone and another average ambush long. I marked both with Fibonacci grids so that you can see the extended width of the first one (at 3905 area), and that the second actually extended from the 3980 resistance/support, which was quite hard to spot and difficult to jump into.


While we tested the 3900s and lower, I stayed in what was left of my short, and eventually was stopped out at profit in the 3990s. The momentum that we saw in the afternoon surprised me, and as mentioned in a earlier post I would have expected this entry to last one or two full days.

After London close, I entered a short scalp, which I closed a little later basically at break even: as a scalp trade it was taking way to long to deliver, as we eventually hovered out of the 4010s after 2 long hours and still not going the distance in any direction. I then entered a long scalp with multiple entries, (see the second ambush long area mentioned above) on which I squeezed between 3 and 13 points. After I closed, momentum was slightly to the upside: while London closed at 3987, at US close the FTSE was quoted in the high 4020s/low 4030s.

I had entered the short scalp as the the 4010s to 4030s are the 50% to 61.8% retrace from Friday's high to today's lows. I also had a couple of 200 MAs on intraday charts around this area. Concurrently, some of the US indices were also at an interesting juncture. This area, between the 4010s and the 4030s is still of interest for the FTSE, and I'll like to see where we are quoted tomorrow pre-open after Asia closes.


I don't know how much trading I'll be doing tomorrow as I'll be away on holiday from Thursday to Monday, which is also one of the reasons I kept quite light on risk today as well. I doubt I'll attempt anything but daytrades or scalps...not that I have managed anything different this week.

Nighthawks at the diner, Tuesday, April 21st

I am short at @4014 for a scalp. Stop at 4030. Just 10% filled.

Update: moved to stop to 4020, no sense in risking more.

Update 2: I am out of this trade @4015. Taking too long as a scalp trade to develop.

Update 3: I am long at @4007, @4012 and @4017 for a scalp. Stop at 3997. 30% filled.

Update 4: I am all out of this long scalp at 4020

Stopped out at 3990 from 4006

I got stopped out at 3990 from my position at 4006. I only had 10% filled, so I had no intention of taking profit at 3900 when we got there for such a small position, and I rather see what'd happen.

I am quite surprised by the pullback we got this afternoon. I would have expected a retrace up but not with such momentum, and I was hoping my entry this morning would have lasted at least until the end of today. I am going to watch the tape closely, look at where we close after hours, and do some extra homework.

Pulling stop down

On the little short position I have left, I am pulling the stop down to 3990.

I am keen on adding if I see weakness in the afterhours, , but right now we are witnessing deep strength from that 3900 level. The 3950s to 3970s area is where I'll be focusing on to see if the trend down continues.

In any case, if I do decide to add, I won't be going into this market heavily: tomorrow is my last trading day this week, as I'll be taking a short break from Thursday to Monday.

Covered half of short at 3984

Moved my stop to 4012.

Update: moved my stop to breakeven at 4006 for a risk-free trade on what I have left.

Entering short position

I am short at 4006 for a 20% fill. We hit the 4020 resistance after UK CPI, we then pushed down to the 3990s, and it then retraced up to the 4000s where I got my fill.

I am still being cautious and my stop is quite close at 4020. I want to see us completely out of this rising channel. Momentum is still negative on the 2 hour and above charts, and it's getting back to negative on the shorter intraday charts.

I'll add more on the way down if necessary and if the occasion arises. However, I'll be watching closely the 4000 area, the 3980s and the 3960s for support.

Update: as I am on the cautious side, I have now moved my stop down to 4015.

Covered long scalp completely

Covered remaining position at 3999.

Morning update

I entered a long scalp trade this morning for a few points as you can read in the previous post. I went in small, took profit on half of it, and then set my stop at breakeven on the rest.

I am still on the look out for weakness, as mentioned in the play for today. But I'll do what the charts tell me to do...

Covered half of long position at @4005

From 3982, still half left. My stop is now at breakeven on this trade.

Scalp long

As mentioned yesterday evening, I would be cautious today, and on the look out for strength on the ascending trendline.

I took a small long on the first retrace down right after open.

I am long at 3982 for 20%. My stop is now at 3978. As I said, this is a scalp trade at the moment.

Play for Tuesday, April 21st

With today's down move, we have several issues to consider for tomorrow's trading.

• Momentum on some daily indicators has now turned negative, but we'll have to wait for tomorrow's close to get a better reading. We also broke through the 7 day average, but the 90 day average has acted as support in the 3960s.
  
• Looking at the ascending trendline, we are now just living off the lower boundary. I am going to be playing cautiously at the onset unless we open drastically lower.
• We are in a long ambush area from the previous "touch" on this lower boundary, which occured in the 3870s.

My bias for tomorrow is to look for a short entry: I have circled the 4030s to 4050s as an area into which to look for weakness; it's an ambush short area from today's highs to the lows, and we have 4040 as a resistance. However, I want to see where and how we open tomorrow morning. I could enter the market at a lower level if necessary should resistances be strong or else alter my plan.



Should we break above the 4040s with strength, I might start looking for a long entry.

Again, I am quite weary and cautious on the fact that we are right on the edge of that ascending trendline.

The evening wrapper, Monday, April 20th

The FTSE was one sided today, blowing down through each support level and breaking below the 4000 mark.

While London closed at 3990, after hours the index reached down as low as 3953, and found consistent support in the 3960s.

Several ambush short trades set up during the day. For example, between 8:20 and 8:50 UK time the FTSE was hovering between the 4090s and 4110s. This levels represented a 50% to 78.6% retrace from Friday's after hours high of 4120 and the pre-open level of 4070.

I have noted the ambush short levels in a orange circle: apart from the one mentioned, all others occured in the 50% to 61.8% retrace from the previous high.

Nighthawks at the diner

I took a quick long at 4064 just now.

Update: closed it at 4077 for a scalp.

Stopped out

I was stopped out of my long FTSE positions at 3965. Phenomenal...

As you might have noticed, I only filled up to 50%: momentum on the downside was quite strong, and as mentioned in the weekend wrap up we were standing in a significant retrace zone.

I am now flat out, and looking for the next trade. I am curious to see where we close in the after hours, both to check momentum and how we stand with regards to the ascending channel we were in.

Since we were hovering in the 50% to 61.8% (4080 to 4220) retrace from the January 6th high to the lows, I'll be looking closely to see if we have indeed put a top on this up move.

Entering long position

I have begun taking a long position on the FTSE, and I am 20% filled: took entries at 4008 and 4012.

I'll be looking for more fills as the day develops, and as buy signals are confirmed.

My stop is in the 3960s.

Update: I have added at 4014, now 50% filled

Morning update

Just a quick update. The FTSE set up both a long ambush trade and a short ambush trade this morning:

• At open, it popped up on support at 4070 area, which was a level touched before market close on Friday (4070 was also an ambush from the 4040 support and 4114 high that developed Friday morning).
  
• An ambush short area from Friday's highs developed, although it was quite wide and slightly broke off the 78.6% retracement from 4120 to this morning 4070.
  

We also have this mini H/S formation seemingly setting up, but I am not a big fan of formations on short time frames.



I now have downside momentum building on intraday charts, as expected in yesterday's post. I am waiting to get a confirmation to go long as planned.

Play for Monday, April 20th

Looking at the hourly chart, the FTSE saw a small divergence building on RSI and ROC during Friday's after-hours. The divergence is still small, and only on hourly charts, so we might get a small retrace down and a chance to jump in long on a support.

Previous resistance was around the 4020 to 4040 mark. We have the 200 weighted moving average at the 4000 mark. The current ascending trendline (see chart in the weekend wrap up), puts a last line of support at around 3980.

Although we might see this retrace down, keep in mind the upside momentum we had on Friday.


On the intraday 15 minute chart, note that an ambush long area is developing around the levels mentioned above. We have a 50% to 61.8% retrace (from Thursday's low to Friday's high) at around 4020 to 4040 area, and the 78.6% mark at 4000.


If momentum on the retrace down is quite strong, we might hover in the 4000 to 4040 area for a day or day and a half. However, as mentioned above and in light of Friday's strength, we might get a buy signal even above this area.

The profit target for a long entry would be between 4150 and 4200 (see weekend wrap up). Do take caution when if and when we approach the 4200 area.

Bottom line: I'll be looking for a confirmation to go long preferably between 4000 and 4040, but even above if necessary. Let's see how Asia pans out during the night as well.

Weekend wrap up

Since the 8th of April the FTSE has been lurking around the lower boundary of its current ascending channel, finding mild resistance between 4020 and 4040. On Thursday, April 16th, we finally broke above this resistance level, as well as above the 50% retrace area (4080) from the Jan. 6th. high. The upper boundary of the current upward channel coincides with the 61.8% retrace of the Jan. 6th high in the 4200-4220 area.


The 4080 area had also provided some resistance in early April. As a note, we are currently above the 200 period weighted moving average for all intraday charts time frames: from 15 minutes to the 8 hours.

Looking at the daily chart now, as many I am sure noted we broke above the descending trendline we had held since May 2008. After a flirt with the negative side, momentum as now shifted again towards the positive. We are now closing in on the 200 day weighted moving average, which has provided resistance in both August of last year and on January of this year: it is also close to the 61.8% retrace level from the Jan. 6th high mentioned above (4200 area).



Keeping the longer term picture in mind, please notice the following on the weekly chart that follows:
- Momentum is still positive, but I would pay close attention to the action on the daily chart.
- Positive divergence is building, which mimics the negative divergence that had built during the last phase of the bull market.
- We are now hovering between the 38.2% and 50% from 0 (zero) to the all time high of 6750. We have yet to touch the 50% line: given that most expect another down leg, a slow crawl to the 3300 area is likely, hopefully building a bottom 5% to 10% below the low hit in March of this year. This fits with the positive divergence argument mentioned above.

First post ever....

Welcome to Mind the FTSE, a blog dedicated to my attempts to successfully trade the FTSE 100 Index.